2017 Resolutions Recap

Update on my 2017 Resolutions

My goals for 2017 and in no particular order:

  1. Run a 9-ball rack (pool) and improve my billiards game. I’ve actually broke and ran a 9-ball game before, but haven’t done so since my session of APA League Pool. Stretch goal: Top Gun in 9-ball for my local APA league. There were a lot of break and runs this year. No Top Gun, but a strong showing in both 8 and 9 ball.
  2. Stage 0 Weight Reduction (lose some weight) and be a little healthier. Maybe make some time and pick up Aikido again. First milestone is to lose 20 lbs. This didn’t happen. I think that I actually gained a few lbs. This year, I’ve decided to change a few things and am working on making this a reality.
  3. Be a little more selfish and spend MORE time focusing on myself and the things I am passionate about. I think I did this. It’s a work in progress.
  4. Chair at least one autocross event for the 2017 Championship Series and one event for the 2017 Slush series. Done.
  5. Podium at an autocross event in my class with more than 5 entries. Done. This past year has been a huge improvement. After 3 years of owning the car, I finally have a full platform to race on. And this rear wheel drive thing is starting to click.
  6. Fix the Impreza, and then fix the Porsche. Let’s not talk about this. Nothing has changed. Lol.
  7. Be more supportive of my friends in their interests and passions, even if those things are no interest to me. Still trying to do this. I think I’ve gotten better at it, but I still think there is a lot of growth that still needs to take place.
  8. Be relatively debt-free by the end of 2017. I am more debt free, but still a ways to debt-free.
  9. Play more Magic: the Gathering than I did in 2016. I think I played about the same amount of Magic. I am looking to play more in 2018.
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Instant Pot – Vietnamese Yogurt

Sweet Yogurt.

  • 1 can of sweetened condensed milk
  • 1.5 cans (use the can from the condensed milk) of hot water
  • 2 cans of room temp water
  • about 3 spoons full of plain yogurt with active/live cultures

Mix. Mix. Mix.

Instant Pot on Yogurt for 6.5 hrs.

For Sweeter Yogurt Recipe.

  • 1 can of sweetened condensed milk
  • 1.5 cans (use the can from the condensed milk) of hot water
  • 1 cans of room temp water
  • about 3 spoons full of plain yogurt with active/live cultures

For Sweet and a Thicker Yogurt

  • 1 can of sweetened condensed milk
  • 1.5 cans (use the can from the condensed milk) of hot water
  • 1 can of room temp water
  • 1 can of 2% milk
  • about 3 spoons full of plain yogurt with active/live cultures
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Instant Pot – BBQ Pulled Pork

Super easy to do and great for any occasion! Recently made this for our SuperBowl gathering!

BBQ Pulled Pork in the Instant Pot

Ingredients:

Instructions:

  1. Cut up the roast into 1.5″-2″ cubes and put all the pork, water, and marinade packet in the liner of the Instant Pot. I think the pulled pork tastes better if you allow it to marinate overnight.
  2. Close and lock the lid, making sure the sealing knob is on sealing. I set the Instant Pot to manual for 40 minutes.
  3. Once the cooking is done, you can release the pressure by the quick or natural pressure release.
  4. Once the pressure is released, remove the pork chunks and shred. Once shredded, place into a large bowl and add BBQ sauce and mix. Add as much or as little as you want. To help keep the pulled pork moist, I also ladled a little bit of the marinade into the mixing bowl. As I liked my pulled pork with a little sweeter sauce, I added a little brown sugar to the mixture. Feel free to add sriracha if you are looking for a little heat!
  5. Serve with buns and coleslaw or enjoy however you like!
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Understanding Probability in Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 – Part 3

Understanding Probability in Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 is a multi-part series. Links to the other parts can be found here:

Understanding Probability in Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 – Part 1
Probability of Incidents During Set-Up

Understanding Probability in Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 – Part 2
Probability of Incidents During Set-Up and How-To Use the Front 9 Calculator

Understanding Probability in Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 – Part 3
Strategies to Survive Between Set-Up and First Epidemic

Strategies to Survive Between Set-Up and First Epidemic

After the infection stage of set-up, what is the best strategy to hold the disease at bay between Set-Up and the first Epidemic?

Source: ZMan Games

Why only manage until the first Epidemic? Once the first Epidemic occurs, the discard is shuffled and put back at the top of the deck. Once this happens, we’ll generally have the same subset of cards that we’ll be drawing from after each Epidemic. Right after set-up, we are still drawing from the larger unknown Infection Deck. All we can really do is cover all the cities. Once the Epidemic happens, we’ll know the composition of the next 20 or so cards which can help us determine how many cubes, or none at all are needed on each city and the likelihood that a specific city may be drawn.

Since we already know the contents (deck size and composition) of the Infection Deck, what we do between Set-Up and the First Epidemic is largely based on what cards are revealed during Set-Up.

We can use adapt the Front 9 Calculator to better demonstrate the probabilities during the Infection step at the end of each player’s turns.

The Previous Strategy

The strategy will be similar to that of how we distributed the the supply cubes prior to set-up. We want to minimize incidents by addressing the most vulnerable cities. In the case of distribution of set-up, we distributed the cubes like this:

1. Place one supply cube in each city that has 3 cards in the infection deck.
2. Place one supply cube in each city that has 2 cards in the infection deck.
3. Place one supply cube in each city that has 1 card in the infection deck.
4. Place a second supply cube in each city that has 3 cards in the infection deck.
5. Place a second supply cube in each city that has 2 cards in the infection deck.
6. Place a third supply cube in each city that has 3 cards in the infection deck.

We know that regardless of the deck size, the order (of probabilities) of items #1-6 will always stay true, though as the deck starts to thin, the percentages of an event happening increases.

The Adapted Formula

Deck size = N (Remaining number of cards in the Infection Deck)
Total number of cards drawn = R = 2 (Infection Rate prior to Epidemic 1)
Number of New York cards = n = 3
Number of New York Cards drawn = r = [0, 1, or 2]; r can not be 3 as the most cards that can be drawn is 2.

P(X = r) =

C(n, r) * C(N-n, R-r)
——————
C(N, R)

In layman’s terms,

C(n, r) is the number of ways to draw r New York card from n New York cards.

C(N, R) is the number of ways to draw R (R=2) cards, from N (N = # of cards remaining in the Infection Deck).

C(N-n, R-r) refers to the number of ways to draw R-r (Non-New York) from N-n (Non-New York)

The formula is exactly the same as the Front 9. The biggest difference is the N and R values. Here is the adapted calculator.

N=18 (Remaining Deck Size, Cell B3); R=2 (Infection Rate; Cell B4)

A simple substitution of a larger or smaller number in to the Backside Calculator will confirm that the order/priority of the guidelines are still true.

N=16 (Remaining Deck Size, Cell B3); R=2 (Infection Rate, Cell B4)

After the 9 infection cards are revealed during set-up, we can use this information to work backwards to determine what cards are remaining in the Infection Deck. The Infection Deck discard is known information. You may look at its content at any time.

Since the order of probabilities is the same, you won’t need to use the calculator. You only need to base your decision from the remaining Infection Deck subset.

Example 1: If two New York cards are revealed during set-up, then there is one New York card remaining in the Infection Deck. Looking at the N=18 chart, the probability that a New York card will be drawn in the next Infection step is 0.1111. This can be found by looking at Row 8 for 1 remaining card in the Infection Deck, and column D, E, and F. The key cell we are looking at is D8 as E8 and F8 are impossible outcomes. (You can’t draw 2 or more cards when there is a fewer number left in the deck.

Example 2: If no New York cards were revealed during set-up. How many New York cards are left in the Infection Deck at the beginning of the game? What’s the probability of this card coming up during the next Infect step (given there is no Epidemic)?

There are three New York cards left in the Infection Deck. Looking at Row 10, and column D, E, F. (Cells D10, E10, and F10.) F10 isn’t a possible outcome and is 0. The sum of D10 and E10 is the probability. Probability = 0.3137.

Revised Guidelines for Game-play Between Set-Up and Epidemic 1

Here’s the revised guidelines. These guidelines are based on the strategy of keeping the most venerable cities stocked with at least one supply cubes. When all cities have at least one supply cube, then does the city receiving a second supply cube is feasible. According to the table provided by the Backside Calculator, it will be very rare to see back-to-back city cards to come out during the Infection step between set-up and the first Epidemic.

1. If a city has 3 Infection cards remaining in the Infection Deck, and there are no cubes on that city, place 1 supply cube on that city.
2. If a city has 2 Infection cards remaining in the Infection Deck, and there are no cubes on that city, place 1 supply cube on that city.
3. If a city has 1 Infection cards remaining in the Infection Deck, and there are no cubes on that city, place 1 supply cube on that city.
4. If a city has 3 Infection cards remaining in the Infection Deck, and there is 1 cubes on that city, place 1 supply cube on that city.
5. If a city has 2 Infection cards remaining in the Infection Deck, and there is 1 cubes on that city, place 1 supply cube on that city.
6. If a city has 3 Infection cards remaining in the Infection Deck, and there is 2 cubes on that city, place 1 supply cube on that city.

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